Morning Call about Telecom Numbers Fixed Lines – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi, June 26, 2012 (PPI-OT): Tele density improves to 71.60% in 9MFY12

According to latest Telecom numbers, released by Pakistan Telecom Authority (PTA), the total tele density has improved to 71.6% in 9MFY12 from 69% in Jun- 11.

According to Arif Habib Limited, this improvement in tele density is mainly due to a 2.8% growth in cellular subscribers, which stands at 118.3mn in 9MFY12.

  Fixed          
Teledensity Line WLL Total Fixed Cellular Total
  Density Density Teledensity Density Penetration  
Jun-11

1.90%

1.70%

3.60%

65.4%

69.0%

 
Feb-12

1.80%

1.60%

3.40%

65.8%

69.2%

 
Mar-12

1.80%

1.60%

3.40%

68.2%

71.6%

 
Source: PTA            

Cellular Density has improved by 280bps in 9MFY12

Cellular density in the country has improved by 280bps in 9MFY12 to reach 68.2% in Mar-12 from 65.4% in Jun-11. During the period, the subscriber base of the segment has also increased by 9.42mn to reach 118.3mn in Mar-12 from 108.9mn in Jun-11, depicting growth of 8.7% in YoY. In terms of subscriber growth Zong led the pack, as its subscriber base has increased by 43.34% since Jun-11, whereas base of Ufone, Telenor and Mobilink grew by 12.6%, 10.1% and 7.2% respectively. In terms of market share, Mobilink continued to lead with market share of 30.2% (Jun-11: 30.7%) followed by Telenor with share of 24.8% (Jun-11: 24.5%), Ufone with a share of 19.5% (Jun-11: 18.9%), Zong with a market share of 13.2% (Jun-11: 10%) and Warid of share 12.2% (Jun-11: 16%).

Broadband subscribers jump by 28.2%

As per latest available figures, subscribers’ base of the broadband segment has jumped up to 1.91mn from 1.49mn in Jun-11, depicting a 28.2% growth. Under this segment, DSL continues to remain preferred technology with a market share of 43%. However its share has declined from 46.6% in Jun-11 as wireless broadband technologies are available at cheaper rates. The WIMAX and Evo usage continues to gather pace as their market shares have reached 28.7% and 25.9%, respectively.

Wireless Local Loop (WLL) connections

During 9MFY12, connections of wireless local loop (WLL) have reached 2.98mn while WLL density stood at 1.6%. With features like Voice Clarity and easy installation, Vfone (a product by PTCL) is leading the wireless local loop segment. Currently it holds a market share of 48.11% and its subscribers have grown to 1.43mn, depicting a growth of 5.1% YoY in 9MFY12. According 9MFY12 figures, market share of Telecard has reached 25.01% and it is followed by Worldcall and Wateen with a market share of 13.1% and 9.63% respectively.

Recommendation

PTCL, which continues to remain the major stakeholder in telecom sector, is Arif Habib Limited’s top pick as it has presence in major segments of telecom industry. Moreover with expected establishment of International Clearing House to control grey traffic, PTCL will be a major beneficiary. Arif Habib Limited recommends a BUY stance with a Dec-12 target price of PKR 21.5/share, suggesting an upside of 54% from last closing price of PKR 13.94/ share.

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