Morning Call about Attock Petroleum Limited – Arif Habib Limited

Karachi: Net earnings likely to grow by 10% YoY in FY2011

Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) is scheduled to announce its FY11 financial result on September 10, 2011.

According to Arif Habib Limited expects the company to achieve a 19% QoQ growth in 4QFY11 to PKR 1,195mn (EPS: PKR 17.28), mainly on account of healthy volumetric recovery in Asphalt coupled with strong oil price movement during the period under review. This healthy performance in the last quarter may take full year earnings to PKR 3,948mn (EPS: PKR 57.11) in FY11, a 10% YoY increase, when compared with PKR 3,594mn (EPS: PKR 52.0) in FY10.

Arif Habib expects the company to announce a final cash dividend of PKR 23.5/share, taking full year payout to PKR 35/share in FY11, in contrast to PKR 30/share distributed in FY10.

 

Financial Highlights
(PKRmn)4QFY113QFY11QoQFY11FY10YoY
Net sales 40,88829,03341%109,02182,79232%
Gross profit1,3941,06731%4,1413,76010%
Other operating income500446 12%1,9371,30948%
Operating expenses18815422%63448132%
Operating profit1,7071,35926%5,4434,58819%
Income on bank deposits191244 -22%942981-4%
Profit before tax1,6511,37620%5,4174,84612%
Profit after tax1,1951,00319%3,9483,59410%
Earnings per share (PKR)17.2814.5257.1152.00  
Sources: Company financials and AHL estimates

 

 

Strong pricing scenario and volumetric growth may yield 32% YoY growth

APL is expected to post a 32% YoY increase in the net sales during FY11. This is anticipated on account of a 15% YoY volumetric growth, which was well supported by the rising trend in the oil prices. Despite suffering a 37% YoY volume contraction in Asphalt, the company managed to bag overall volumetric growth mainly emanating from YoY growth of 52%, 36% and 7% in Furnace Oil (FO), Motor Spirit (MS) and High Speed Diesel (HSD), respectively. A 25% YoY rise in the Arab Light Crude Oil price has also resulted in YoY average price increase of 21%, 18% and 12% in FO, HSD and MS, respectively.

Other operating income may increase by 48% YoY

Arif Habib expects the company to achieve a 48% YoY growth in the other operating income, mainly due to improvement in the commission and handling income coupled with mark up received on the late payments.

Income on bank deposits may suffer a 4% YoY drop

APL has suffered a 31% decline in Cash balances and investments since June 2010, which is likely to result in a 4% YoY drop in the income on bank deposits and short term investments. This effect is far more visible in 4QFY11, where income on bank deposits in expected to drop by 22% YoY, in line with the cash balance decline during 3QFY11.

Recommendation

Arif Habib’s DCF based target price for APL works out to PKR 444.6./share, which offers an attractive upside potential of 20.4% from last closing price of PKR 369.3/share; thus Arif Habib recommends a Buy.