AKD Quotidian about — Autos: FY12 sales up 22.3%YoY

Karachi, July 13, 2012 (PPI-OT): According to the numbers released by PAMA, auto industry sales have recorded a growth of 22.3%YoY in FY12 to 179k units (Cars + LCVs).

According to AKD Securities, in FY12, car sales were up by 23%YoY to 157k units and LCV segment registered 17.6% YoY growth to 21.8k units. Tractor sales were down by 28%YoY to 49.7k units where sales were hampered by imposition of GST. On MoM basis, June’12 emerged as the best month of sales in the last fiscal year and recorded total sales of 19,156 units, a growth of 15.3%MoM. Furthermore, sales in the 4QFY12 were up by 8.5%QoQ, where AKD Securities highlights seasonality (Apr-Jun quarter has historically been the best for auto sales) as well as strong recovery in HCAR sales following normalization of production as factors driving demand.

Jun’12 Auto Numbers
(Units)FY12FY11YoYJan-12May-12MoM
Total Cars

157,325

127,944

23.0%

16,310

14,934

9.2%

LTVs and Pickups

21,814

18,553

17.6%

2,846

1,683

69.1%

Tractors

49,745

69,203

-28.1%

8,368

6,913

21.0%

Company Wise      
PSMC

112,157

75,541

45.4%

11,552

15,658

7.5%

INDU

54,477

50,515

8.9%

5,570

4,846

14.9%

HCAR

17,118

18,488

-21.7%

2,218

1,150

92.8%

Source: PAMA and AKD Research

PSMC: Being the market leader, PSMC has posted a robust growth in sales of40%YoY to 112,157 units in FY12 mainly supported by Mehran and Bolan with sales growth of 46%YoY and 69%YoY, respectively. The higher sales of these variants are the consequence of the Government of Punjab taxi scheme. On sequential basis the company has posted a growth of 7%MoM to 11,352 units. Sales in 4QFY12 were flattish (up by a modest 0.5%QoQ to 308k units).

INDU: Parallel with the industry sales, INDU has recorded sales growth of 15%MoM to 5,570 units. Hilux with the new model of `Vigo Champ’ has posted 2.5xMoM growth in sales to 788 units where sales of Cuore were 295 units and Corolla sales were 4,487 units. In full year FYI 2, the company has posted a growth of 9%YoY, driven by 12%YoY sales growth of the flagship `Corolla’.

HCAR: Sales of HCAR have been on the recovery path during 4QFY12 as production at the plant normalized, where production was earlier hampered by disruption in supply chain due to the floods in Thailand. In Jun’12, HOAR has posted 93%MoM growth in sales to 2,218 units. Sales of Civic and City were 533 units and 1,685 units, up 433%MoM and 60%MoM, respectively.

Tractors: Thanks to the cut in GST to 5%, the sales of tractors have rebounded strongly. Total tractor sales were recorded at 8,368 units in the month of Jun’12, up 21% sequentially, where in full year FY12 there is a decline of 28%YoY due to the GST issue. Millat tractors (MTL) has recorded sales of `Massey Ferguson’ of 5325 units and Al-Ghazi Tractors (AGTL) with the sales of `Fiat’ recorded at 3,043 units in Jun’12, up 28%MoM and 11%MoM respectively.

Outlook: Corresponding to the growth in remittances with a CAGR of 19%, total car sales (local + imports) in the country are growing sharply with a CAGR of 30% for last ten years, AKD Securities expects the sales to grow on the same pace for next year. Last quarter has witnessed a strong growth of 8.5%QoQ in industry sales, which bodes well for the sector’s 4QFY12 earnings outlook. While the PKR depredated by 0.4%QoQ against JPY, stable steel prices coupled with uptick in car prices should help the auto sector maintain their margins. AKD Securities’ preferred pick in the industry is PSMC (now the only OEM to assemble 1000cc and below segment variants) having larger market share and the only company to cater car needs of the huge middle class population.